NFL Picks & Talk - Conference Championships

[Wazmankg]

The point values for the playoffs will be as follows :

1st round - 2 points, 2 lock maximum
2nd round - 3 points, 2 lock maximum
Conference Championships - 4 points, 2 lock maximum
Super Bowl - 5 points, you may lock or not


Just a reminder...No default picks are allowed for the playoffs.



Sunday 1/24

Favorite Line Underdog

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota





OVERALL STANDINGS

Golfaddict 154 - 139 - 4 ( 16 - 21 ) .5256
Ty Webb 161 - 152 - 4 ( 25 - 32 ) .5144
90civicracer 146 - 143 - 4 ( 17 - 16 ) .5052
Leaguegolf 153 - 153 - 4 ( 24 - 14 ) .5000
JungleJ 154 - 154 - 4 ( 25 - 27 ) .5000
TwillDog 126 - 131 - 4 ( 0 - 1 ) .4903
Wazmankg 151 - 157 - 4 ( 22 - 30 ) .4903
HackBlack 141 - 167 - 4 ( 26 - 26 ) .4578
Leaguegolf 113 - 91 - 4 ( 24 - 14 ) .5539

[HackBlack]

Favorite Line Underdog
At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets LOCK
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota LOCK

Bottom feeders unite!

[TwillDog]

Sunday 1/24

Favorite Line Underdog

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota

[Ty_Webb]

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets LOCK
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota LOCK

[90civicracer]

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets Lock
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota. Lock

[Leaguegolf]

Sunday 1/24

Favorite Line Underdog

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets LOCK
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota LOCK

[Golfaddict]

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets LOCK
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota LOCK

[Wazmankg]

At Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets LOCK
At New Orleans -4 Minnesota LOCK

[Wazmankg]

Well it's down to GolfAddict and Leaguegolf... if they choose different teams. JungleJ was a no show this week so I had to give him 0-8 for the week. I should have picked both teams I was rooting for instead of just the Colts. I thought the Saints were better than that ... and they'd better be next week.


THIS WEEK'S STANDINGS

Golfaddict : 16-0 (8-0)
HackBlack : 16-0 (8-0)
Leaguegolf : 16-0 (8-0)
Ty Webb : 8-8 (4-4)
Wazmankg : 8-8 (4-4)
JungleJ : 0-8
TwillDog : 0-8
90civicracer : 0-16 (0-8


OVERALL STANDINGS

Golfaddict 170 - 139 - 4 ( 24 - 21 ) .5502
Leaguegolf 169 - 153 - 4 ( 32 - 14 ) .5248
Ty Webb 169 - 160 - 4 ( 29 - 36 ) .5137
Wazmankg 159 - 165 - 4 ( 26 - 34 ) .4907
JungleJ 154 - 162 - 4 ( 25 - 27 ) .4873
HackBlack 157 - 167 - 4 ( 34 - 26 ) .4846
90civicracer 146 - 159 - 4 ( 17 - 24 ) .4787
TwillDog 126 - 139 - 4 ( 0 - 1 ) .4755
Leaguegolf 129 - 91 - 4 ( 32 - 14 ) .5864

[Leaguegolf]

Since I jumped in late, I'll give Golfaddict the right of first option and I'll take the opposite team he chooses. Fair enough?

[Wazmankg]

Hack & I were tied going into the SB a couple of years ago. I jumped on the Giants immediately and he took the Pats. He wasn't that enthusiastic about them though as I recall.

[Ty_Webb]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

Since I jumped in late, I'll give Golfaddict the right of first option and I'll take the opposite team he chooses. Fair enough?

I may be wrong, but I think you need him to lock his choice too. If he doesn't lock it, you can't catch him. Unless I got my sums wrong, which is distinctly possible.

[Ty_Webb]

Originally Posted by Wazmankg

OVERALL STANDINGS

Golfaddict 170 - 139 - 4 ( 24 - 21 ) .5502
Leaguegolf 169 - 153 - 4 ( 32 - 14 ) .5248
Ty Webb 169 - 160 - 4 ( 29 - 36 ) .5137
Wazmankg 159 - 165 - 4 ( 26 - 34 ) .4907
JungleJ 154 - 162 - 4 ( 25 - 27 ) .4873
HackBlack 157 - 167 - 4 ( 34 - 26 ) .4846
90civicracer 146 - 159 - 4 ( 17 - 24 ) .4787
TwillDog 126 - 139 - 4 ( 0 - 1 ) .4755

Since I'm now out of the running for victory in this, I'd like to give a shout out to our two top regular season finishers. One of whom, quite prophetically I must say, posted this:

Originally Posted by 90civicracer

Oh I know this Waz, but it still has a nice ring to it.

"Regular Season Champion"

With that being said, we all know the regular season doesn't mean ****. Look at the Patriots a few years ago, 16-0 and lose the Super Bowl.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by wazmankg

Hack & I were tied going into the SB a couple of years ago. I jumped on the Giants immediately and he took the Pats. He wasn't that enthusiastic about them though as I recall.

Personally, I think the Colts will cover easily but I'll still leave the choice up to Golfaddict.

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

I may be wrong, but I think you need him to lock his choice too. If he doesn't lock it, you can't catch him. Unless I got my sums wrong, which is distinctly possible.

If you're rght about Golfaddict having to LOCK his pick, I'm sure he'll be up to the challenge. After all, Ted Williams didn't sit the bench the last day just to save his .400 batting average did he?. ....

[90civicracer]

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

Since I'm now out of the running for victory in this, I'd like to give a shout out to our two top regular season finishers. One of whom, quite prophetically I must say, posted this:

So can I say that I called my own death? I guess I'm better at picking wins out of a large sample of games, but obviously when it gets narrowed down to just a few teams I obviously don't know what I'm doing.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

Since I'm now out of the running for victory in this, I'd like to give a shout out to our two top regular season finishers.

90civicracer was 15 games over .500 in the regular season but plunged to 13 games under .500 through yesterday's games....OUCH!

Nobody remembers how many "regular season" titles anyone wins. It's all about winning when it counts most.

[Golfaddict]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

Personally, I think the Colts will cover easily but I'll still leave the choice up to Golfaddict.




If you're rght about Golfaddict having to LOCK his pick, I'm sure he'll be up to the challenge. After all, Ted Williams didn't sit the bench the last day just to save his .400 batting average did he?. ....

Hrmm, if there was money involved I would definitely pull out the 3 iron and bunt down the fairway for the safe win. Why do I have visions of Jean Van de Velde when I think about locking a pick.

It would have to be some ridiculous kind of point spread for me not to pick the Colts to win. If either of the NFC teams would have played Indy on Sunday they would have been blown out by 30 points.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Golfaddict

Hrmm, if there was money involved I would definitely pull out the 3 iron and bunt down the fairway for the safe win. Why do I have visions of Jean Van de Velde when I think about locking a pick.

It would have to be some ridiculous kind of point spread for me not to pick the Colts to win. If either of the NFC teams would have played Indy on Sunday they would have been blown out by 30 points.

Monsieur Golftoxicomane, (pardon my French)

You've got a decent lead. Don't be a mauviette! Here's your Driver...........

Bonne Chance,

Christophe Angiolini aka.......Liguegolf

[Wazmankg]

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

I may be wrong, but I think you need him to lock his choice too. If he doesn't lock it, you can't catch him. Unless I got my sums wrong, which is distinctly possible.

You're right. GA would clinch it with a 5 point loss by .541 to .539 if League locks the winner.

For the future, what does everyone think about the increased playoff values carrying so much weight ? I know some of you have really taken a hit. In my mind, and taking nothing away from 90cr and the regular season, but with 16 games each week a lot of it is guesswork. By the time the playoffs roll around, it's narrowed down to a few teams that everyone should have a pretty good gauge of.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Wazmankg

You're right. GA would clinch it with a 5 point loss by .541 to .539 if League locks the winner.

For the future, what does everyone think about the increased playoff values carrying so much weight ? I know some of you have really taken a hit.

Taken a hit? That's like saying Hiroshima was just a cherry bomb

The more important the game, the more points the game sould be worth. Most regular season games are broadcasted in their own markets (except here in Detriot where the dreaded "Black Out" is the norm but there are weekly games that are nationally televised. I say we up the points on the Nationally televised games. I want to be able to watch the same game Golfaddict is watching in Arkansas as 90civicrider is watching in the tri-cities and root for my team knowing that one or both of them is rooting heavily against mine. That would be great!

After starting late, I wasn't expecting to go from last to first but a near perfect playoff run (only one lossed LOCK) and I find myself with a sporting chance to win.... that is of course, if Golfaddict is a sporting man.

Originally Posted by wazmankg

In my mind, and taking nothing away from 90cr and the regular season, but with 16 games each week a lot of it is guesswork. By the time the playoffs roll around, it's narrowed down to a few teams that everyone should have a pretty good gauge of.

Just keep 90civicracer away from the 12 "gauge" once the playoffs start!

[TwillDog]

I'd like to thank 90civicracer for making me not feel as bad about going from first to worst in a span of about a month. I think I've had one correct pick in all of the playoff games this year.

[JungleJ]

Well I'm back - I was moving house over the weekend and had no Internet access from Wednesday until Sunday evening. Indy and the Vikes covered which is what I expected, but no tears here for missing the boat.

If I may make a suggestion - why not ask League and Golfaddict to PM their picks to Waz?

Also, I've been unsure about the increased point values for the playoff games. It certainly makes the final result a lot less predictable, but it also renders the first 17 weeks of picking kind of irrelevant. No suggestions for improvement at this time though.

[Wazmankg]

Originally Posted by JungleJ

Well I'm back - I was moving house over the weekend and had no Internet access from Wednesday until Sunday evening. Indy and the Vikes covered which is what I expected, but no tears here for missing the boat.

If I may make a suggestion - why not ask League and Golfaddict to PM their picks to Waz?

Also, I've been unsure about the increased point values for the playoff games. It certainly makes the final result a lot less predictable, but it also renders the first 17 weeks of picking kind of irrelevant. No suggestions for improvement at this time though.

I think they've both said they'd go with the Colts... all else being equal. But all else isn't equal. GA could close him out if he chooses, and I'm sure he would if there was money riding on it. I'm going to leave it up to them to work it out.



And I'm open to suggestions for improving the contest in any way... as long as the changes don't make it any harder on me.

[Golfaddict]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

After starting late, I wasn't expecting to go from last to first but a near perfect playoff run (only one lossed LOCK) and I find myself with a sporting chance to win.... that is of course, if Golfaddict is a sporting man.

Get it right League, you're in second. The question is, do I feel bound to give League a chance for the title when he didn't start with the rest of us. League might have bombed out on those first weeks and been even in worse shape than he started in.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Golfaddict

Get it right League, you're in second. The question is, do I feel bound to give League a chance for the title when he didn't start with the rest of us.

Go ahead, take your title and run. I just thought that it may make watching the Super Bowl a little more interesting for you if you had something at risk.

Originally Posted by golfaddict

League might have bombed out on those first weeks and been even in worse shape than he started in.

Sure, that's a possibility.........but it's statistically more likely that I would've matched my overall yearly performance. In which case, our roles in this little game would've been reversed now wouldn't they. I think that the facts that I went from buried deep in the cellar to within mere percentage points from denying you a title, and that I've been on fire through the playoffs worries you enough to decline my offer of a challenge. Hey, by declining you win fair and square and you'll get no complaint from me but while I have your attention, may I suggest you grow some chicken nuggets and take after your kin here.........




Just be very careful of that Leaguegolf truck that's bearing down on you. ....

[Wazmankg]

I don't know what to tell you GA. Either way you go he's going to be unbearable.

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Wazmankg

I don't know what to tell you GA. Either way you go he's going to be unbearable.

Me? UnBEARable? That hurts my feelings.

I can see GA's side of it. He can take full advantage of 90civicracer's and Twilldog's playoff collapse to back into a title and forever be thought of as the guy that backed away from a challenge, or he can accept my challenge like a man and possibly win a GolfRewound Pick'Em Title that he can display proudly. I just know if the roles were reversed I certainly wouldn't have a beak and feathers.

[Golfaddict]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

Go ahead, take your title and run. I just thought that it may make watching the Super Bowl a little more interesting for you if you had something at risk.



Sure, that's a possibility.........but it's statistically more likely that I would've matched my overall yearly performance. In which case, our roles in this little game would've been reversed now wouldn't they. I think that the facts that I went from buried deep in the cellar to within mere percentage points from denying you a title, and that I've been on fire through the playoffs worries you enough to decline my offer of a challenge. Hey, by declining you win fair and square and you'll get no complaint from me but while I have your attention, may I suggest you grow some chicken nuggets and take after your kin here.........




Just be very careful of that Leaguegolf truck that's bearing down on you. ....

Those were taken away 17 years ago. I will still have to decide. Do I give up a sure win...or compete with a guy that basically said we were incompetent pickers ( we mostly were, but that's beside the point ) I may drag this out for a while before I make my decision.

Fellow competitors, any thoughts on this matter?

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by Golfaddict

Those were taken away 17 years ago.

Ah, I see. You're a de-boned chicken.

Originally Posted by golfaddict

I will still have to decide. Do I give up a sure win...or compete with a guy that basically said we were incompetent pickers ( we mostly were, but that's beside the point ) I may drag this out for a while before I make my decision.

A classic Picker versus Plucker battle looms.

[Ty_Webb]

There are four possibilities. I think

1. GA picks and locks. LG picks the other way and locks. LG wins.
2. GA picks and locks. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins.
3. GA picks and doesn't lock. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins and would have won even if he locked.
4. GA picks and doesn't lock. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins, but would not have done if he locked.

Under scenario 1, GA gets to gloat and LG will say he wanted to pick that way too, but had to go the other way to give himself a chance.
Under scenario 2, we will never hear the end of it. All the gloating about how LG won despite his handicap of starting late with basically Waz's record.
Under scenario 3, we have the most chance of silence from LG, although it's limited and GA will have his victory and it will be fully deserved
Under scenario 4, we will never hear the end of it. All the gloating about how LG would have won if GA had any "chicken nuggets", but at least it will be tempered by the "yeah, but you didn't win"

Scenario 3 is preferable to scenario 1 IMO. Scenario 4 is definitely preferable to scenario 2. So on that basis, I'd say don't lock GA. Although, ignoring any potential aftermath, from a watcher's point of view, it would be more interesting if LG had a chance.

The other thing is I could still finish second, so most likely I will pick the same way as GA and hope he got it right so I can sneak past LG. If GA doesn't lock, there's the tiniest chance LG might pick the same way (although I can't believe he'd give up on the opportunity to gloat). In which case, I'd be in a bit of a hole since I think I'm going to go the same way as GA does. We shall see.

[JPsuff]

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

There are four possibilities. I think

1. GA picks and locks. LG picks the other way and locks. LG wins.
2. GA picks and locks. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins.
3. GA picks and doesn't lock. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins and would have won even if he locked.
4. GA picks and doesn't lock. LG picks the other way and locks. GA wins, but would not have done if he locked.

Under scenario 1, GA gets to gloat and LG will say he wanted to pick that way too, but had to go the other way to give himself a chance.
Under scenario 2, we will never hear the end of it. All the gloating about how LG won despite his handicap of starting late with basically Waz's record.
Under scenario 3, we have the most chance of silence from LG, although it's limited and GA will have his victory and it will be fully deserved
Under scenario 4, we will never hear the end of it. All the gloating about how LG would have won if GA had any "chicken nuggets", but at least it will be tempered by the "yeah, but you didn't win"

Scenario 3 is preferable to scenario 1 IMO. Scenario 4 is definitely preferable to scenario 2. So on that basis, I'd say don't lock GA. Although, ignoring any potential aftermath, from a watcher's point of view, it would be more interesting if LG had a chance.

The other thing is I could still finish second, so most likely I will pick the same way as GA and hope he got it right so I can sneak past LG. If GA doesn't lock, there's the tiniest chance LG might pick the same way (although I can't believe he'd give up on the opportunity to gloat). In which case, I'd be in a bit of a hole since I think I'm going to go the same way as GA does. We shall see.

Never have I been more confused since watching Bugs Bunny read the instructions on how much money to put in a vending machine to buy a carrot during one of his cartoons.


-JP

[Ty_Webb]

Originally Posted by JPsuff

Never have I been more confused since watching Bugs Bunny read the instructions on how much money to put in a vending machine to buy a carrot during one of his cartoons.


-JP

You just had to read it. I had to write it and it just about blew my mind.

[Wazmankg]

Pick and lock the Colts, GA. That's what you said you wanted to do unless the spread was something ridiculous. I think it's 5 currently. League says he'll go with the Saints in that case, though he already said he thinks the Colts will roll. So if the Saints cover and League wins we'll at least know the only reason was he played off of your pick, pure luck... regardless of what he says to the contrary. We're going to be hearing plenty from him about this contest and his "amazing rise through the standings" anyway.

I was going to lock both Indy & the Vikes last week, but League already had and my only chance to catch him on our side bet was to go against him on at least one pick (and win both) then beat him in the SB, so I switched to the Saints.

[Leaguegolf]

You guys have it all wrong. Why do you think I'd feel the need to gloat, or that you'd never hear the end of it?

I may be annoying at times but I'm not the gloating type.

The honest truth is I'm only trying to extend the conversation in the Pick Em game for another couple of weeks. I jumped in late and I would completely understand if Golfaddict plays it safe. He played the entire year and has earned that right. If he does accept my challenge, and I win, I'd be perfectly happy putting an asterisk next to my record.

Offering the challenge is my way of pressing the bet. If he accepts the press then it's Game On! If he doesn't, then it's Game Over. As for the Picks themselves, Yes, my feeling is that the Colt's will win. Whether they cover or not is another story. That's why I offered GA the first option. I certainly don't mind taking the points if he's sold on the Colts. Either way, it sure would make the game, and the next two weeks in this thread, a bit more interesting. I said I'm not a gloater, andI'm not, but either way I will talk some trash.

[JPsuff]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

:

I may be annoying at times

This, without question, qualifies as the biggest understatement since Noah said, "I think it might rain".



-JP

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by JPsuff

This, without question, qualifies as the biggest understatement since Noah said, "I think it might rain".-JP

It's funny that you would use Noah as an example. Especially given that you and I are definitely in the same boat when it comes to being annoying.

[JPsuff]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

It's funny that you would use Noah as an example. Especially given that you and I are definitely in the same boat when it comes to being annoying.

Yes but I'M the captain!


-JP

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by JPsuff

Yes but I'M the captain!

You're the captain alright.

"Everybody, listen to me
And return me, my ship
I'm your captain, I'm your captain
Though I'm feeling mighty sick........


.....I can feel the hand, of a stranger
And it's tightening, around my throat
Heaven help me, heaven help me
Take this stranger from my boat"



Fleet Admiral Leaguegolf

[JPsuff]

Originally Posted by Leaguegolf

You're the captain alright.

"Everybody, listen to me
And return me, my ship
I'm your captain, I'm your captain
Though I'm feeling mighty sick........


.....I can feel the hand, of a stranger
And it's tightening, around my throat
Heaven help me, heaven help me
Take this stranger from my boat"



Fleet Admiral Leaguegolf

Well that would explain why I have no crew and have been reduced to scrounging throughout the forest for animals. And all of this with a storm coming.


Nice goin' there, Admiral!


-JP

[Leaguegolf]

Originally Posted by JPsuff

Well that would explain why I have no crew and have been reduced to scrounging throughout the forest for animals. And all of this with a storm coming. Nice goin' there, Admiral!

I read the book.....it all turns out fine in the end.