Tigers' World Ranking?

[xnavyct]

I've been wondering, since I am by no means an expert on the World Golf Rankings, and can't find anything that really tells me...

Since Tiger will not be playing for the better part of a year, will he go lower in the World Golf Rankings? Or does he stay #1?

If he does stay at #1, how is that if he isn't playing at all? Wouldn't it go to someone who plays really well the rest of 2008?

Or will he go lower because of not playing, and comes back next year somewhere in the top 5? If that's the case, I'm thinking he'd be extremely motivated to get #1 back.


How does this all work?

[Ty_Webb]

It works by players getting points for each event they play in and then an average is calculated by dividing by the number of events. If you play in less than 40 events (over the past two years), they divide by 40. Tiger has currently about 34 events he's played in. The points start to drop off as they give more weighting to recent events than old ones. By the end of the year, I'd guess his average will be somewhere around 15-18 points. I suspect it Phil won every tournament between now and the end of the year, he'd get past him, but in reality, Phil's unlikely to be much better than 11 or so. Tiger will have to play reasonably well next year to keep it, but I can't see him being overtaken until probably this time next year. That will still require Phil to step up and play very well between now and then.

[TTUfirebird2008]

Who cares at this point? At this point the only thing he's going for is winning 19 majors, and 84 tournaments. I think he'll come back and pick up right where he left off. He's going to be spending a ton of time practicing his short game, as if he needed any help in that area, and working on improving his full swing.

[mr3856a]

He's so far ahead at this point my guess is that he's still going to be #1 when he comes back, but even if he isn't, I'm sure it ain't gonna take long.

[HackBlack]

Thanks to a highly eventful evening of kids and nephews I may have guesstimated what TW's OWGR points will be at his first event in 2009, probably The Buick Invitational, the last week of January.

January 29, 2009...9.02 (Projected)
May 11, 1997........8.73 (Last time TW has less than 9.00 points, I think)

Poor Tiger will probably be a lowly #2 in the world. The last time that occurred I think was Sept 04 when Vijay was #1 for a while, taking that status, temporarily, back from Tiger.

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[Ty_Webb]

Just read what you said HackBlack and I make it that he'll have still 10.46 points in week 5 of 2009. He won't fall below 9 points until week 10 of 2009.

I am of course making the vast leap to conclusions that is the assumption I haven't made a mistake, but I checked it against now and it seems to work. I would attach what I did, but I appear to have uploaded the maximum number of files and have no clue how to un-upload old ones so I can upload new ones.

[HackBlack]

Originally Posted by Ty_Webb

Just read what you said HackBlack and I make it that he'll have still 10.46 points in week 5 of 2009. He won't fall below 9 points until week 10 of 2009.

I am of course making the vast leap to conclusions that is the assumption I haven't made a mistake, but I checked it against now and it seems to work. I would attach what I did, but I appear to have uploaded the maximum number of files and have no clue how to un-upload old ones so I can upload new ones.

Finding the weighting for EACH week of the 2 year period was a pain. I didn't save what I calculated and won't be trying it again.

Needless to say, after TW wins the 09 Buick Invite, he'll be back on top.

[Ty_Webb]

Originally Posted by HackBlack

Finding the weighting for EACH week of the 2 year period was a pain. I didn't save what I calculated and won't be trying it again.

Needless to say, after TW wins the 09 Buick Invite, he'll be back on top.

Well, I think it just drops by 1/92 for each week between 13 and 104, so if you work out how many weeks ago an event was, then your formula for working out the multiplier is (in Excel speak): =MAX(0,MIN(1,1-("weeks ago"-12)*1/92)).

I agree with your second comment.

[Leaguegolf]

We don't need any formulas, standings, or points, to tell us who the #1 golfer in the world is........and neither do any of Tiger's opponents.

[HackBlack]

Here is the "official" FAQ based on TW's post-surgery interview:

Q. Could Phil Mickelson overtake Tiger as the No. 1 player in the world?
A. It's a possibility, but Mickelson would probably need to win one of the two remaining majors, as well as the remaining World Golf Championships event, the Bridgestone Invitational, and another couple of tournaments to accumulate enough points by Dec. 31. That's a tall order. Official World Golf Ranking points are based on a two-year span and gradually reduced. Woods currently has an average of 21.14 -- roughly double that of Mickelson -- and would finish the year with an average of 11.968. Projections indicate that if Woods remains idle, his ranking average wouldn't approach Mickelson's current 10.214 until just before next year's Masters.

3 different calculations (this guy, myself and Ty_Webb). I guess we'll find out "the winner" in January.

[Ty_Webb]

Originally Posted by HackBlack

Here is the "official" FAQ based on TW's post-surgery interview:

Q. Could Phil Mickelson overtake Tiger as the No. 1 player in the world?
A. It's a possibility, but Mickelson would probably need to win one of the two remaining majors, as well as the remaining World Golf Championships event, the Bridgestone Invitational, and another couple of tournaments to accumulate enough points by Dec. 31. That's a tall order. Official World Golf Ranking points are based on a two-year span and gradually reduced. Woods currently has an average of 21.14 -- roughly double that of Mickelson -- and would finish the year with an average of 11.968. Projections indicate that if Woods remains idle, his ranking average wouldn't approach Mickelson's current 10.214 until just before next year's Masters.

3 different calculations (this guy, myself and Ty_Webb). I guess we'll find out "the winner" in January.

Well, I have him at 11.967 at year's end, which I suspect is just a rounding thing. But, then I think he's hitting 10.214 in week 6 of 2009, which I guess may be described as "just before the Masters - at a stretch anyway. Week 12 of 2009, which I think is actually just before the masters (might be 13) is 8.48 (or 8.22).